Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 03/1621Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1135 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (04 Apr, 06 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 070
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 006/005-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/30/10