Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 02/0659Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/1921Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1691 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Apr, 05 Apr) and quiet levels on day two (04 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 069
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 007/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/30