Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 31/1355Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 391 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 070
Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 31 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 010/012-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/20