Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 29/0728Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0838Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 278 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 068
Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 29 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 009/012-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/50/40