Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 24/2251Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/2331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1398 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 071
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10