Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 23/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/0017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1303 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 071
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10