Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 15/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/1713Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 070
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 070/069/069
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 008/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/25