Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 09/1802Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0545Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 173 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (12 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 071
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/30/20