Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 07/1200Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 070
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/30