Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 06/1315Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/1208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0912Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 211 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Mar,08 Mar, 09 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 070
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 008/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25