Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 04/2142Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 05/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 070
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 006/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/25