Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 03/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/1714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 388 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 070
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10