Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 02/1303Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 922 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 069
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 008/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20