Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 27/1410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1141 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 071
Predicted 28 Feb-01 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 27 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 006/005-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/35