Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 01/1028Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2009Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 403 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 073
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 006/006-006/006-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20