Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 23/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 071
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15