Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2020 COR

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 21/1908Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/1312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (24 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 071
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 009/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/15