Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 16/0949Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/0828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 309 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 072
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 072/071/070
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/30