Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 25/2108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1525Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 25/2212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2713 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 070
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/15