Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 653 km/s at 22/0200Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 553 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 070
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 009/010-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20