Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 31/0633Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/0035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1885 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 071
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10