Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 659 km/s at 28/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58545 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Oct, 31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (30 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 069
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 008/008-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/35/20