Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 672 km/s at 27/0000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36223 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 069
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 010/012-010/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/40/35