Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 695 km/s at 26/1623Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/1153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20986 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 069
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 029/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 015/018-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/30