Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 25/0228Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 25/2010Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Sep) and active to major storm levels on day three (28 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 068
Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 25 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 008/008-016/028-030/045

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/35/40
Major-severe storm 01/20/20
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/65/75