Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 22/1002Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2124Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 068
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  010/012-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/30