Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 730 km/s at 03/0651Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 73718 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Sep, 06 Sep) and quiet levels on day two (05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 069
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/005-005/005-008/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/25