Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 28/0706Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2313Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 066
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 006/005-006/008-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/40
Minor Storm 01/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/60