Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/0306Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/1528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 18/1828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1918 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 067
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15