Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 14/0953Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/2111Z. 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 068
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  005/008-004/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    10/15/25