Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 10/2110Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (12 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 070
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  013/015-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/20/15