Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 312 km/s at 07/1118Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/1308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/1600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 205 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Jun, 09 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 069
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  008/010-009/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/10