Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 05/0414Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/0018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0411Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected   to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 070
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  006/005-008/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/30