Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 16/1630Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1652Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1155 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 May) and quiet levels on day three (19 May).

III. Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 074
Predicted 17 May-19 May 074/074/072
90 Day Mean 16 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 017/020-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 30/05/01
Major-severe storm 15/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/15
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 70/25/15