Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/1924Z from Region 2741 (N05W44). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 May) and expected to be very low on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 14/2113Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 15/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1254 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 May).

III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 074
Predicted 16 May-18 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 15 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 023/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 018/032-015/020-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor Storm 35/30/10
Major-severe storm 25/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 75/70/25