Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lowwith a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 13/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4476 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 075
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/20