Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lowon days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 05/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13361 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Apr) and quiet t unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 074
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  010/012-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/30