Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 28/2153Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/0711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 465 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 069
Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 29 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30
