Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 28/1743Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/0826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/1258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 068
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  009/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/25