Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 10/2141Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2179 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 070
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  010/015-011/020-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/35/35