Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 06/1044Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/0822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14710 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Mar, 09 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (08 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 073
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 007/010-009/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/30/25