Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 18/1124Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 670 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Feb, 20 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 070
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  010/012-012/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/40/35