Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 16/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/1442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1803Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 659 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 070
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  006/005-010/012-012/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/40/40