Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 13/1412Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 555 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (16 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 070
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  009/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           35/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/15/10