Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 11/2126Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 442 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 070
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  008/008-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/15
Minor Storm           01/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/35/20
Major-severe storm    15/40/15