Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 24/2201Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/0030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1408 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jan 075
Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        25 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  009/010-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/15