Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 23/2045Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/1636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1904Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (25 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 072
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 018/024-013/018-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/50/30