Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (23 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 22/1617Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1424Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1646Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (24 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 071
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  013/018-019/024-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor Storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/50