Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 20/2136Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/0751Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 070
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  006/005-013/018-019/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/60/60