Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 20/1832Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1951Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 069
Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 20 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 006/005-006/005-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/35
Minor Storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/60